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MMWR described that since June 1981, 43 females had developed AIDS typical infections. It stated "epidemiological observations increasingly suggest that AIDS is caused by an infectious agent....such an agent could be transmitted sexually or through other intimate contact".

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Alpha Pharmaceutical issued a press release which stated, "The evidence suggests, although it does not absolutely prove, that a virus or other disease agent was transmitted to [haemophilia patients with AIDS] in the Factor VIII concentrate, derived from pooled human plasma".

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Dr Craske told 21 haemophilia centre directors at a meeting with Immuno regarding AIDS that the disease was "intractable", up to December 1982 in the US 45% of those suffering from it had died, ten people with haemophilia in the US had been affected of whom five had died, the youngest aged seven and there appeared to be an incubation period of between six months and two years.

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The nature of the risk of AIDs was discussed by haemophilia centre directors at a meeting in January 1983.

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An article appeared in The Lancet entitled "Acquired Immunodeficiency-like Syndrome in Two Haemophiliacs" which stated that the cause of AIDs was likely a blood borne virus and that transmission of an infectious agent in blood products seemed likely.

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The CDC reported that blood products or blood appeared responsible for AIDS among haemophilia patients requiring clotting factor replacement. It also noted that the first signs of AIDS might take two to three years to emerge after exposure to a possible transmissible agent. There was a fatality rate of more than 60 percent for those first diagnosed over one year previously.

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An article in MMWR states that it seems likely that the pool of persons capable of transmitting an AIDS agent may be considerably larger than the presently known number of AIDS cases. Also that there may be a latency period of between several months to two years between infection and recognisable clinical illness and that transmissibility may precede illness.

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CDC representatives met with leaders from the blood industry (including the Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association), haemophilia groups, gay community organisations and representatives from the NIH [National Institute of Health] and FDA in Washington. The disease was renamed AIDS and it was agreed that it was caused by an infectious agent.

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In a memo Ed Cutter wrote that Cutter might consider being open about the risk of AIDs for those who consumed its products.

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The FDA issued a directive to all US manufacturers of plasma derivatives aimed at decreasing the risk of transmitting AIDS, stating that plasma collected from donors in certain high risk groups "should not be fractionated into derivatives already known to have a risk of transmitting infection diseases".

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Dr Smith wrote to Dr Fowler, stating that it would be advisable to consider the problem of AIDS and blood products at the next meeting of the CSM(B) and asking Dr Fowler to produce a brief paper for the meeting.

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During oral evidence to the Infected Blood Inquiry, Dr Diana Walford stated that it was "a fairly unusual format" to have conclusions already made within an agenda for a committee meeting. This was in reference to an agenda for the Committee on Safety of Medicines Sub-Committee on Biological Products on 13 July 1983.

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During oral evidence to the Infected Blood Inquiry Dr Walford was questioned in relation to concentrates and the UKHDO's stance on the risk they carried. In response to the level of risk she stated that "the risk as they [UKHCDO] were defining it was what they perceived as the risk at the present time".

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Dr Fowler seemed to think it questionable that factor concentrates posed any additional risk to people with haemophilia. He asked in it whether haemophilic AIDS might be a function of the concentrate itself, but then said: "one cannot ignore other views and hope the problem will go away."

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Cutter - in a letter - to Dr Fowler, stated that the facts about AIDS were "very limited" and it therefore "can only be an assumption that AIDS can be transmitted by certain blood products." They added that "Also it is unclear whether the syndrome contracted by hemophiliacs really is the same as the AIDS syndrome contracted by other high risk groups."

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Dr Walford was clear that the medical stream of the civil servants of the DHSS believed that the likeliest cause of AIDS was an infective agent.

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The CSM(B) held a meeting on 13 July 1983 where Dr Smith stated that the material those attending received was confidential and should not be disclosed outside the meeting.

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Dr Bruce Evatt described the AIDS epidemic as evolving at "a frightening pace...The incidence rate has been increasing in hemophiliacs and the epidemic curve paralays [sic] that of the total epidemic curve."

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The CSM(B) discussed the possibility of withdrawing US preparations. It was concluded that this was not feasible on the grounds of supply. Moreover, the perceived level of risk did not "at present justify serious consideration of such a solution".

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Sonnabend et al stated in a journal article that the bombardment of recipients of blood products by a large range of different proteins, recognised by recipients' immune systems as "foreign" and consequently provoking an immune reaction, eventually overloaded the immune system of the recipient to the point that it failed.

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